The price of A-grade logs exported from New Zealand reached a record high of US$171/JASm3 in July 2021, but last month the price had fallen to the lowest point since the end of 2015, at only US$108/JASm3. Due to the decline in prices, the number of logs shipped to New Zealand ports has slowed significantly.
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China is New Zealand's largest overseas log market, accounting for 70-90% of its exports. During the period from July to November, the rapid decline in log export prices directly led to a decrease in log output across New Zealand by approximately 30%.
Although New Zealand log dealers have been waiting for the price of logs to rebound, the export price of logs in December is still expected to hover around US$100. The export price of logs per cubic meter is still lower than the three-year average price of about US$20, and this price is the lowest price that most forest owners can accept.
At present, the domestic softwood log inventory is still maintained at more than 5 million cubic meters, the average daily log shipment volume of various ports is 75,000 cubic meters, and the daily log volume arriving at the port is around 5w cubic meters. The volume of domestic log imports fell below 5 million cubic meters again in October, a drop of 14.55% from the previous month. It is predicted that even if the volume of log imports rebounds in November, it will not exceed 5.2 million cubic meters.
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The Christmas and New Year holidays are approaching. The employees of New Zealand forest companies have far more holidays this year than in previous years. Some employees of small timber companies have to find additional job opportunities.
Next year, Russia’s log export ban will be officially implemented, and the outbreak in Manzhouli has hampered the recent timber trade. The domestic timber demand in the United States and Canada has increased significantly, which will further reduce the supply of logs. The domestic Spring Festival holiday is also conducive to the consumption of log inventory. Therefore, most of the New Zealand log practitioners are now pinning their hopes on the market in the first quarter of next year.