This is undoubtedly the most difficult time for timber operators.
According to the investigation by reporters from China Timber Price Index Network and Timber Kingdom, after late September, the domestic timber market unsurprisingly experienced a slight recovery, but the market heat was far lower than the expectations of the merchants, and due to the fact that there are many existing stocks in stock It is a high price to start with. Too low market transaction enthusiasm makes it difficult for merchants to sell at a high price. It is fortunate that they can not lose money.
Obviously, the weak trading sentiment has seriously dragged down the rebound and recovery of the Chinese timber market. The traditional "golden nine silver ten" market not only did not help timber merchants to earn seasonal income, but on the contrary made merchants fall into the dilemma of "low traffic".
Judging from the reasons for the weak market demand, the most intuitive is that the epidemic has repeated in recent months, which is reflected in the shrinking of timber transactions and falling prices. According to the monitoring data of China Timber Price Index Network, the domestic log transaction volume in August decreased by 5.52% compared with the previous month, and the transaction value shrank by 3.24%. And in terms of price, the prices of popular wood species such as white pine, sylvestris pine, sapele, and pineapple grid have declined by 5-10%.
Of course, the underlying reason for the sluggish demand for wood is not caused by the sudden epidemic. More important reasons that may have long-term effects include changes in residents' consumption habits after the epidemic, high precautionary savings and decline in marginal consumption propensity, and optional consumer goods such as furniture. Insufficient purchasing power and changes in the real estate market.
Take the imported softwood market as an example. It is understood that, under the combined impact of internal and external factors, although domestic imported softwood has maintained a certain amount of shipments, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the market outlook. On the one hand, the relationship between overseas supply and demand is relatively tense, and there is upward pressure on external prices. On the other hand, the measures of strict control of the property market and slowdown of infrastructure are gradually taking effect, market demand is expected to slow down, upstream and downstream businesses are less motivated to operate, and domestic timber sales prices are not uncommon. few. This is also the main reason why the price of North American softwood sawn timber continues to fall, but there are very few recipients.
It can be said that the current decline in domestic timber consumption confidence is beyond imagination. If the downstream market demand declines or stagnates, the pressure on the supply side to expand capacity will be reduced, and the soaring domestic timber prices will temporarily come to an end. How will the market play out next? I am afraid that no one can accurately predict. We can only say that at the moment when the economic growth rate continues to decline, timber operators must at least keep a sober heart.