What are the log market conditions and the development prospects of the log industry? In recent years, the continuous and rapid development of China's economy and the improvement of people's living standards have made the domestic demand for wood continue to grow and promoted the vigorous development of the wood processing industry.
1. The supply of logs in my country is less than the demand
Due to the small amount of forestry resources in China, the low resource occupancy per capita, and the impact of environmental protection policies, China's log output has been fluctuating since it exceeded 30,000 cubic meters in 2012, but it has generally remained stable until 2021. The annual log output in China is 312.362 million tons. As foreign countries gradually reduce log exports, China may gradually loosen the restrictions on log output in the future.
2. Log import market risk
According to the "2021-2026 China Log Industry Development Prospect Strategy and Investment Risk Forecast Analysis Report" released by the China Research Institute of Industry Research:
From the perspective of global supply, the log output is in a state of fluctuation, the supply is unstable, and the month-on-month growth rate shows a trend of decreasing fluctuations. The newly added logs tend to be produced and consumed domestically, and the supply security of the international log market is generally low.
However, there are not many countries in the world that import a large amount of logs, mainly Finland, Sweden, Austria, Germany (Due to forest pests, Germany has imported very little wood in the past two years) and China. Europe mainly imports pulpwood, while China mainly imports industrial logs, accounting for more than 40% of global log imports. China is the main importer and consumer market for logs, and there are no big competitors in log trade.
3. Current domestic wood processing transformation
At present, domestic wood processing has initially achieved three strategic changes: that is, from using natural forest as the main raw material to using artificially planted forest as the main raw material; from a single development model of expanding production scale to expanding scale and creating a new profit model. The transformation of the compound development model; from using one market and one resource to using two domestic and foreign markets and two resources.
In terms of overseas supply, on the one hand, the order of shipping has not been restored, and transportation costs remain high. On the other hand, many countries have found that exporting raw materials alone cannot obtain more lucrative benefits and deepen the development of the industry.
For example, the newly revised forest law of the Russian Federation stipulates that the export of softwood logs and precious hardwoods will be banned from 2022.
It is foreseeable that China will evolve from log imports to timber imports.