Data released by the General Administration of Customs on August 7 showed that in July, my country's total import and export value reached 3.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, 2.3 percentage points faster than June. In the first seven months, the total value of my country's import and export of goods trade was 23.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and the cumulative growth rate reached double digits.
Since the beginning of this year, my country has effectively coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development. Foreign trade imports and exports have overcome many adverse effects such as the tightening of the external environment and the short-term impact of the epidemic. The cumulative growth rate in the first seven months has reached double digits. Li Kuiwen, director of the Statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, said: "Among them, imports and exports in July increased by 16.6% year-on-year, continuing the trend of continuous recovery in foreign trade growth since May, and making positive contributions to stabilizing the macroeconomic market."
"The year-on-year growth rate of foreign trade imports and exports rebounded in July, fully demonstrating the resilience of China's foreign trade. The strong performance of my country's foreign trade also helped ease the market's concerns about the prospect of a global economic recession." Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, said in an analysis.
RCEP trading partners' foreign trade to my country
The pulling effect is obvious
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, in July, my country's total import and export value was 3.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.6%. Among them, the export was 2.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 23.9%; the import was 1.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.4%; the trade surplus was 682.69 billion yuan, an increase of 90.9%.
Zhou Maohua analyzed that the year-on-year growth rate of exports in July exceeded expectations. The main reasons include: global demand slowed down, but it was not as pessimistic as previously expected, and overseas demand continued to expand; the export structure continued to optimize, and foreign trade companies actively explored new advantages in foreign trade; Auto exports have been strong for several months, etc. He believes that the steady acceleration of import growth in July is mainly due to the recovery of domestic demand and the high import cost.
The role of RCEP trading partners in driving my country's foreign trade is obvious. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, in the first seven months, my country’s imports and exports with countries along the “Belt and Road” increased by 19.8% year-on-year, and its imports and exports with the other 14 RCEP member countries increased by 7.5% year-on-year.
Li Kuiwen said that in July, my country's imports and exports to RCEP trading partners reached 1.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%, driving the overall import and export growth by 5.6 percentage points. The RCEP came into effect this year, further deepening regional economic connectivity and trade and investment cooperation, and providing new momentum for regional economic recovery and development.
The growth rate of foreign trade in the Yangtze River Delta region has accelerated
The growth rate of foreign trade in the Yangtze River Delta region continued to accelerate. According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, in the first seven months of this year, the total import and export of the three provinces and one city in the Yangtze River Delta was 8.58 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.7% year-on-year, 2.5 percentage points faster than the growth rate in the first half of the year.
In terms of import and export commodities, from January to July, my country's export of mechanical and electrical products was 7.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, accounting for 56.6% of the total export value. Among them, the export of automatic data processing equipment and its parts was 918.2 billion yuan, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year; the export of mobile phones was 494.63 billion yuan, an increase of 2% year-on-year; the export of automobiles was 175.74 billion yuan, an increase of 54.4% year-on-year.
At the same time, in the first seven months, my country imported 3.97 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, down 3.6% year-on-year; imported cars (including chassis) 517,000, down 16% year-on-year, valued at 210.01 billion yuan, down 2.7% year-on-year.
Foreign trade growth is expected to remain resilient in the second half of the year
Chang Ran, a senior researcher at the Zhixin Investment Research Institute, said that to analyze my country's export situation in the second half of the year, we should start with both medium and long-term logic and short-term logic. In the medium and long term, the wave of overseas interest rate hikes is coming, the global inflation situation is severe, and overseas demand is gradually weakening; in the short term, supply recovery and the concentrated release of overseas demand will promote a "squatting rebound" in exports. He expects that short-term logical factors in the third quarter will still support my country's exports.
Zheng Houcheng, director of the British University Securities Research Institute, said that it is expected that the global manufacturing PMI of JPMorgan Chase, the US ISM manufacturing PMI and the euro zone manufacturing PMI will continue to decline in August, which may put some pressure on my country's export growth in August.
Zhou Maohua analyzed that from the trend, the growth rate of exports may slow down, but it is still expected to remain resilient. my country's foreign trade export structure has been continuously optimized, and foreign trade enterprises have continued to play their roles in improving quality and efficiency, innovating and developing, and bail-out and helping enterprises, which will help reduce the slowdown in overseas demand and the pressure on the supply chain.
"my country's economy has strong resilience, sufficient potential, and the fundamentals of long-term improvement have not changed. With the implementation of the country's package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy, and the orderly progress of resumption of work and production, my country's foreign trade is still expected to continue to maintain stable growth." Li Kuiwen said earlier.