Data released by the General Administration of Customs on June 9 shows that in the first five months of this year, my country's total import and export value was 16.04 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.3% over the same period last year (the same below). Among them, the export was 8.94 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.4%; the import was 7.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.7%; the trade surplus was 1.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 47.6%. In May, my country's total import and export value was 3.45 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.6%.
According to Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher of the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, the rebound in imports and exports in May reflects the expansion of domestic and foreign demand. It will also inject positive energy into the global economy and financial markets.
Industry experts generally believe that with the implementation of a package of economic stabilization policies and measures, the logistics of foreign trade will gradually be smooth, and the resumption of work and production of enterprises will continue to accelerate, the growth of foreign trade will remain stable, and the quality will be improved.
Import and export growth rebounded in May
In dollar terms, in May, my country's total import and export value was 537.74 billion US dollars, an increase of 11.1%. Among them, the export was 308.25 billion US dollars, an increase of 16.9%; the import was 229.49 billion US dollars, an increase of 4.1%; the trade surplus was 78.76 billion US dollars, an increase of 82.3%.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, analyzed that the growth rate of imports and exports rebounded in May, mainly because the impact of the epidemic eased, the resumption of work and production was accelerated, the foreign trade logistics blocked points were gradually opened, and the growth rate of import and export freight volume accelerated. In addition, the recent policy of stabilizing foreign trade has continued to increase, and efforts have been made to improve the efficiency of port transshipment and customs clearance, which is also an important reason for the rebound of foreign trade data in May.
Zhou Maohua also expressed the same view. In his view, the rebound of foreign trade import and export data in May was mainly due to the obvious weakening of short-term factors that plagued foreign trade in April, the accelerated recovery of related logistics and transportation, industrial and supply chains, and the accelerated recovery of production activities of upstream and downstream enterprises, which drove the import and export of foreign trade. Activities are normalized.
Zhou Maohua said that in May, the year-on-year growth rate of exports was stronger than that of imports, and the trade balance remained at a relatively high level, mainly because global demand was still strong, while energy and commodity prices remained high, which continued to restrain import demand to a certain extent.
While maintaining stable growth, the foreign trade operation also has many bright spots. The import and export of general trade increased and the proportion increased. In the first five months, my country's general trade import and export reached 10.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 12%, accounting for 64% of my country's total foreign trade value, an increase of 2.1 percentage points over the same period last year. At the same time, the import and export of private enterprises grew rapidly and their proportion increased. In the first five months, the import and export of private enterprises was 7.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.8%, accounting for 49% of my country's total foreign trade value, an increase of 1.5 percentage points over the same period last year.
Foreign trade is expected to maintain a stable growth momentum in the second half of the year
Looking forward to the future foreign trade situation, Wang Shouwen, Vice Minister of Commerce and Deputy Representative of International Trade Negotiations, said at the regular briefing on policies of the State Council on promoting the stability and improvement of foreign trade held by the State Council Information Office on June 8 that foreign trade is still facing a series of uncertainties. , including the impact of some international and domestic factors, foreign trade enterprises have also encountered difficulties in production and operation, and it can be said that maintaining stability still faces a lot of pressure.
Wang Shouwen also mentioned that the development of foreign trade in the next stage has bright spots and positive aspects. The first is that the epidemic situation in my country is showing a downward trend, and the resumption of work and production is progressing in an orderly manner. Secondly, the intensive introduction of support policies, the superposition of these policies, will definitely play a role in promoting the growth of foreign trade. In addition, my country has more and more partners in free trade agreements, and the tax reduction and trade facilitation functions of these free trade agreements will also play a very important role in promoting the development of my country's foreign trade.
In response to the current difficulties in the development of foreign trade, the General Office of the State Council recently issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Stability and Quality Improvement of Foreign Trade". The new round of foreign trade stabilization policies highlights pertinence and timeliness. 13 specific measures have been put forward in terms of increasing fiscal and taxation financial support, helping foreign trade enterprises to seize orders and expand markets, and stabilizing the foreign trade industrial chain and supply chain, which will promote the growth of foreign trade.
"It is expected that my country's foreign trade is still expected to maintain an expansion pattern in the second half of the year." Zhou Maohua said that from the perspective of the manufacturing PMI indicators of major economies, global demand is still expected to maintain an expansion pattern. Foreign trade is expected to maintain an expansion pattern.
Specifically, in terms of exports, Wang Qing predicts that the growth rate of exports in June may continue to be double-digit high, driven by the further repair of logistics, the delivery of backlog orders in the early stage, and the continuous strengthening of foreign trade stabilization policies. Level. However, due to the high export base last year, the repair of overseas supply chains led to the re-outflow of some foreign trade orders that returned to China last year, and the uncertainty brought about by the situation in Ukraine to global economic growth, the growth rate of my country's exports throughout the year this year There is some downward pressure.
In terms of imports, Zhou Maohua said that imports are expected to improve in the second half of the year, mainly because the recovery of domestic demand is expected to drive import demand; at the same time, from the perspective of global demand and policy trends, commodity prices are expected to gradually return to the fundamentals, which will promote enterprises to replenish inventories.