From January to August this year, German timber exports to China fell by 25.7% year-on-year, totaling 3.349 million cubic meters. The amount decreased by 41.8% year-on-year, totaling 3.92 billion yuan. The number of logs decreased by 33% year-on-year, totaling 2.74 million cubic meters. The quantity of sawn timber increased by 53.8% year-on-year, totaling 600,000 cubic meters.
It can be seen from the import data of the past five years that from 2020 to 2021, Germany's timber exports to China began to "surge", and even log exports accounted for 95% in 2021. It was not until 2022 that the surge gradually disappeared.
In August this year, Germany's timber exports to China continued to hit a new record, only 212,000 cubic meters. At present, Germany's domestic logging industry has not yet returned to the level at the beginning of the year. German exports to the Chinese market are expected to remain low in the fourth quarter of 2023.
From a price point of view, from January to August this year, the average price of German timber imports was about 1,248 yuan/cubic meter, the highest level in the same period in the past five years. The average import price of beech wood in August was approximately 2,212 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 16% month-on-month. According to last year's price trend, German beech prices still have room for an increase of about 150-300 yuan in the fourth quarter.
In addition, after the Russia-Ukraine dispute, Germany replaced Russia as one of the EU's major timber suppliers. This also means that even after logging in the German timber industry resumes in 2024, its timber exports to China will not see a "surge" again, and the overall price change will not be too obvious.