From January to August this year, German timber exports to China fell by 25.7% year-on-year, totaling 3.349 million m3; the value fell by 41.8% year-on-year, totaling 3.92 billion yuan. Among them, the number of logs decreased by 33% year-on-year, totaling 2.74 million m3, and the number of sawn timber increased by 53.8% year-on-year, totaling 600,000 m3.
Judging from the import data of the past five years, during 2020-2021, Germany's timber exports to China started a "surge" state. In 2021, the proportion of log exports even reached 95%. Until 2022, the surge The trend just faded away.
In August this year, Germany's timber exports to China continued to hit new lows, only 212,000 m3. At present, Germany's local logging industry has not returned to the level at the beginning of the year. It is expected that Germany will still maintain low exports to the Chinese market in the fourth quarter of 2023.
From a price point of view, from January to August this year, the average price of German timber imports was around 1,248 yuan/m3, which was the highest level in the same period in the past five years. Among them, the average import price of beech in August was around 2,212 yuan/m3, an increase of 16% month-on-month. According to the price trend forecast in previous years, there is still room for an increase of about 150-300 yuan in the fourth quarter of German beech.
In addition, after the Russia-Ukraine dispute, Germany replaced Russia as one of the EU's major timber suppliers. This also means that even after the German timber industry resumes logging in 2024, its timber exports to China will not see a "surge" again, and the overall price will not change much.