With the easing of the epidemic situation in the Yangtze River Delta region, highway toll stations and service areas have been closed and closed across the country. The biggest crisis in the timber industry in April—transportation is no longer a problem.
The impact of the epidemic showed signs of weakening at the end of April and the beginning of May. The construction progress of downstream construction units that deviate from the construction end or the infrastructure business is gradually recovering. Under the weakening of the impact of the epidemic and the gradual emergence of policy effects, the demand side has improved significantly, and the timber industry is growing. In the rapid recovery, the delivery and order situation has also improved.
However, as the epidemic problem draws to a close, another log supply-side problem that was previously covered up by the epidemic has become more and more obvious. The Russian-Ukrainian incident has tightened the global timber market in the short and long term, causing the price of logs in Europe, including spruce, to be even higher. There is a significant increase. Superimposed the sharp depreciation of the RMB during this period, the cost of imports rose accordingly.
At present, due to the slow release of my country's timber market demand and sufficient supply of logs, the terminal price has not fluctuated greatly for the time being. However, with the growth of domestic downstream demand and the rapid consumption of domestic inventories, the problems of "quantity" and "price" of log supply will become more prominent.
In the short term, the repeated demand at this stage still has a great impact on the prosperity of the timber industry, but the constraints of the epidemic on the construction rhythm are expected, so that the demand may be more concentrated in the later release, and the improvement in timber demand is expected to be considerable.
It is expected that with the relief of the epidemic, the implementation of projects will contribute to physical demand, and inventory pressure will have an impact on timber prices. We may see unexpected changes in timber prices.
