The International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO) website reported on July 2, 2021 that ITTO released a survey report entitled "Tropical Timber in 2050: Analysis of the Future Supply and Demand of Tropical Timber and Its Contribution to Sustainable Economy" on the same day. The report uses global forest product models and public data to predict the supply and demand prospects of tropical timber by 2050, as well as the development trends and trends of tropical timber resources, forest products and their industries.
The author of the report, Dr. Christian Helder, stated that global resource consumption will double by 2050 compared to 2015, which will overwhelm sustainable supply and have a negative impact on biodiversity, climate, ecosystems and human well-being. Influence. He emphasized that in the world, there is an urgent need to pay attention to the effective use of global resources and actively promote the transformation of production methods centered on renewable resources such as wood and aimed at achieving the goal of carbon neutrality.
The report predicts that global resource consumption will double by 2050, which is a good opportunity for tropical timber producing countries. Replacing non-renewable resources with renewable resources is a ready-to-use solution. It is expected that by the middle of the 21st century, the production of tropical logs will increase significantly.
The report shows that in addition to the construction sector, part of the growing demand for materials in other industries such as plastics and textiles can be replaced by tropical wood products. However, the tropical timber industry is not as mature as other industries. To this end, the report lists five complementary strategies and key actions that can support the sustainable growth of the tropical timber industry and strengthen the use of tropical timber: 1) Improve resource utilization efficiency. For example, by improving production technology and using digital value chains to reduce wood waste, make full use of wood processing by-products, and achieve energy cascade utilization where feasible; 2) Transform resource consumption patterns. For example, reduce the use of wood fuel and use idle resources for new processing methods; 3) develop regional wood processing industries, reduce exports and increase domestic value-added; 4) improve forest management. For example, by expanding certification and improving forest management plans, adjusting production systems, increasing harvesting rates, improving forest health, and producing higher value-added categories; 5) Seeking opportunities for natural capital investment focusing on wood. For example, investing in nature-based solutions such as tropical rainforest protection and landscape restoration, providing subsidies to "green" products or implementing tax cuts will help increase natural capital investment and improve its economic efficiency.
The report also summarized the following nine main points: 1) It is conservatively estimated that the global log output will increase by 13% to 4.3 billion m3, and the total log output in the tropics will reach 1.3 billion m3, of which firewood will account for 57%; 2) Global Wood fuel production will decrease by 21%, from 1.8 billion m3 in 2015 to 1.5 billion m3, mainly due to the reduction in fuelwood consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa; 3) Global industrial log production is expected to increase by 45% to reach 2.8 billion m3, the output of tropical areas is expected to increase by 24% to 533 million m3; 4) Tropical timber producing countries will become net exporters of industrial logs; 5) Tropical industrial logs will gradually be converted to plantation supplies, natural Forest supply will account for 27%, lower than 35% in 2015; 6) In order to maintain market share, it is necessary to increase the types of commercial timber species and increase the competitiveness of tropical timber production by increasing carbon sinks and ecosystem services; 7) Development The timber industry and community forestry need to improve afforestation methods and obtain third-party legality and sustainability certification; 8) In the future, the possibility of large-scale plantation expansion is limited. Small-scale farming and agroforestry management models will become the core of timber production. Both of these need to further improve productivity and timber quality; 9) Private equity capitalization and incentive policies for plantation management are critical to the development of the industry.
Steven Johnson, acting secretary-general of ITTO, said that if global climate change is to be avoided, all kinds of timber resources, including tropical timber, will surely become core consumer products in the future. This report will help the government and the private sector to further participate in cooperative actions for the sustainable growth of tropical timber, promote the tropical forest sector to play an important role in tackling climate change, and contribute to the economic prosperity of tropical countries and communities.